Eurusd has been very resilient looking at the risk sentiment we have these days, Spanish and Italian bond yields are rising Stocks are falling and Eu is still sitting where it was this morning. The reason behind it are 1) Huge barrier defense at 3000 2) An interesting viewpoint from Forexlive on repatriation flows behind the bid tone of Eu.
The second half of the pair i.e USD rallied strongly last week after Fed changed turned to a more Hawkish stance (no QE3). But on the last day of the week NFP once again changed all of that.
Now going forward we will have to have to closely follow Fed's monetary policy and Eurozone's debt situation.
NFP was just one figure so also would have to keep taking notice that what is upcoming Eco data tells us about the economy. Central banks don't change their stance based on just one number they looks at the trend of numbers in past 3-6 months.
Gauging the sentiment in Eurozone is easy you can just simply look at the bond yields and stocks read the headlines and you know whats going on but tricky part is when someone comes out on the news wire's says something against the current sentiment and that changes whole thing price reverses in seconds and starts taking out trailing stops and depending on WHO is saying WHAT the move could be from 10 pips to more than a 100 pips.
One trade that i am looking for is Eu's reaction to the news.
If it dont go up on good news from here than i will be shorting near the upper boundry of the range and if it's not able to get though the barrier on rising yeilds and tension in Spain than it means it will bounce hard.
.
The second half of the pair i.e USD rallied strongly last week after Fed changed turned to a more Hawkish stance (no QE3). But on the last day of the week NFP once again changed all of that.
Now going forward we will have to have to closely follow Fed's monetary policy and Eurozone's debt situation.
NFP was just one figure so also would have to keep taking notice that what is upcoming Eco data tells us about the economy. Central banks don't change their stance based on just one number they looks at the trend of numbers in past 3-6 months.
Gauging the sentiment in Eurozone is easy you can just simply look at the bond yields and stocks read the headlines and you know whats going on but tricky part is when someone comes out on the news wire's says something against the current sentiment and that changes whole thing price reverses in seconds and starts taking out trailing stops and depending on WHO is saying WHAT the move could be from 10 pips to more than a 100 pips.
One trade that i am looking for is Eu's reaction to the news.
If it dont go up on good news from here than i will be shorting near the upper boundry of the range and if it's not able to get though the barrier on rising yeilds and tension in Spain than it means it will bounce hard.
.
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